Coastal Texas Keep Your Eyes on the Gulf – Tropical Update

(KPEL-FM) Over the past week, we have been monitoring the forecast models that predict the weather not only for the Gulf Coast but for the entire nation. One model the National Weather Service leans on in preparing its weather information for you is the GFS, or Global Forecast System, model.

That model has been consistently suggesting that residents of Brownsville, South Padre Island, Corpus Christi, and the Houston, Galveston area will have a tropical "concern" within the next two weeks. What do we mean by a tropical "concern"?

Tropical Models Suggest Storm Development in the Bay of Campeche

The GFS Model, along with some other global forecast models, is predicting the formation of a tropical low-pressure system in the Bay of Campeche on or about June 24th. That system, based on model guidance, could be a prodigious rainmaker for the Texas coast. It could also become a tropical depression, tropical storm, or even the season's first hurricane.

Yes, it is too early to tell exactly what the Texas coast might experience as far as this "potential system" is concerned. But the fact that model guidance keeps indicating an issue and has consistently done so over the past week, there is probably "some fire where we're seeing smoke," if you know what I mean.

READ MORE: What Should You Have in A Hurricane Kit?

READ MORE: Hurricane Season Forecast Update - What's Changed?

Those who live along the Gulf Coast of Texas probably have their hurricane plan in place. If you don't, you should. Make sure you have important records, documents, and cherished items ready to go should you need to leave your home in the event of a storm. You might also want to refresh your "Hurricane Kit" since a lot of us haven't needed those kits in a year or so.

Is There a Tropical System in the Gulf Near the Texas Coast?

Again, there is nothing confirmed and nothing imminent that requires action on your part. Please remember Tropical Models, even the GFS, are not official forecasts. They are presented as a tool that forecasters and the general public can use to be vigilant about potential storms and situations brought about by those storms.

This forecast will change over time. It might change for the better, it could change for the worse, depending on where you are and what your point of view on landfalling tropical systems and flooding happens to be. Most of us don't like those as an outcome, which is why we want you to be prepared and to plan ahead.

This is a developing story that we will monitor. Do check back with us over the course of next week, and remember that for official information, please visit the National Hurricane Center website or the National Weather Service website.